You can read the full report in our Analytics section.

We continue our series of reports on growing real estate markets. In our opinion, these markets are of interest to both individuals – investors, and companies, including those working with securities in the real estate market.

Center for City Development Policy analysed the data and developed a forecast for residential property prices for the 10 largest cities in Spain and the 8 autonomous communities where these cities are located. The forecast is developed for the period 2024-2027.

Spain: over the past 10 years there have been 2 periods of “recovery growth” in the residential real estate market: after the 2008 crisis (2014-2019) and after the pandemic (2021-2023), total growth in 2014-2023: 53.0%. Base country forecast House price index growth for 2024-2027: +15.5%.‍

Autonomous communities (for which the forecast was developed) are divided into 3 groups by total forecasted growth for 2024-2027):

▪ The base forecast is significantly higher than the Spanish average: Balearic Islands +20.3%, Community of Madrid +18.8% и Catalonia +17.9%

▪ The base forecast is near than the Spanish average: Andalusia +16.8%, Canary Islands +16.7%, Valencian Community  +16.7%, Basque Country +15.4%

▪ The base forecast is lower than the Spanish average: Region of Murcia +13.6%

Cities (for which the forecast was developed) are divided into 3 groups by total forecasted growth for 2024-2027):

▪ Leading cities: Valencia +39.1%, Malaga +36.2%

▪ Cities with expected significant growth: Madrid +21.9%, Barcelona +19.9%, Alicante +18.8%

▪ Cities with limited growth: Seville +14.9%, Palma +14.8%, Murcia +11.0%, Bizkaia-Bilbao +11%, Las Palmas +5.7%

Our forecasting model utilized data from EuroStat, Instituto Nacional de Estadística,  Tinsa Tasaciones Inmobiliarias, Fotocasa

Macroeconomic projections of ECB, Banco de España, Aena S.A. The detailed methodology is presented in Methodology section of full report.

Our analysis showed that the forecast is very sensitive to the rate of economic growth, population change, volume and quantity of mortgages, volume of new housing construction. For coastal small settlements, demand from foreigners has a significant impact. Detailed comments on each Autonomous community and City are presented in the full report.

The forecast and report for Spain is updated 3 times per year (April, August, December). The next updates on Spain and Spain Major cities –are planned for December 2024 and April 2025.

DISCLAIMER: Since the market of each country and each city is complex and the situation for all properties is individual, the research team doesn’t offer any individual investment solutions and doesn’t make any recommendations. In case you are planning to purchase/invest in real estate you should contact local real estate market specialists, who may provide you competent consultation.

Rubric: Housing, property, emerging markets, pricing and forecasting.

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You can read the full report in our Analytics section.